The instant reaction from the national media about No. 5 Wisconsin drawing No. 12 High Point was one of "wow, tough draw." Pundits were pointing to one specific stat on the metric sheet: the Panthers are the nation's third-highest scoring offense at 90 points a game. That's an electric offense that knows how to push the pace and score the rock. However, if you look into the game log, you can quickly see that the metric is inflated.
High Point has five games with 100+ scoring. Three of those teams are not Division-I.
127-52 win over Averett (D-III)
129-47 win over Mary Baldwin (D-III)
123-64 win over Pfeiffer (D-III)
104-49 win over Gardner-Webb
112-87 win over Gardner-Webb
High Point has three games where they went nuclear, but all were against D-III teams. Two levels lower than where they play, none of them even count toward quad rankings. The other two, slightly less nuclear but still impressive, were against Gardner-Webb, which is the NET 361 team in the country. Literally, one of the lowest possible rankings.
High Point has an incredible offense but it has yet to be tested by a strong opponent
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You throw those five games out. High Point's scoring offense is now at 84.9 points per game in scoring offense. This is still wildly high for a team, but it's no longer ranked third in the country. It's now tied for 19th. The problem is that it's still overly inflated, but no longer by DIII teams. High Point played five other teams 300+ in the NET. In those games, the Panthers scored: 93, 89, 93, 89, and 95.
If we put those on a shelf, now the offense is scoring 83.5 points per game. Nothing to turn your nose up about, but High Point is now 29th in the nation in scoring. If this starts to feel unfair to a team that has to play whoever is on their schedule, it's an exercise to not get daunted by the high number. For you could keep whittling it down.
High Point played zero opponents under 100 in the NET, actually check that, zero opponents under 110 in the NET. They played zero quad-1 games and lost the only two quad-2 games they had.
This doesn't mean Wisconsin should take them for granted. The Badgers have a horrible history with being the No. 5 seed. It's just a "pump the brakes a bit" on High Point's high-octane offense. It's got some inflation going on in there. It's still an electric offense, but it's more realistic when you throw out the worst opponents and non-DI opponents.
