The Badgers are heading into a "backs against the wall" season. Those are the words of Luke Fickell. It's a prove-it year where Fickell and his team need to prove that Wisconsin football is on the right track. This season can't be destined for another disappointment, or the new athletic administration will absolutely pull the plug.
Now that spring ball is over, let's give a floor and ceiling prediction for the Badgers. What's the worst-case scenario and what's the best-case scenario for 2026?
Worst case scenario is another crash and burn season: 3-9
The absolute worst case is that the Badgers can't find any wins in the conference except maybe one. They have two games in weeks two and three that should be automatic wins against Western Illinois and Eastern Michigan. There's a worst-case scenario where the Badgers only beat one Big Ten team, maybe Purdue or UCLA.
That's dire, but it's also unlikely. It would take another injury-plagued quarterback year and a drop in the defensive play. The defense alone will keep them in many of the games, even against the top opponents. However, since we are painting a worst-case scenario, here it is 3-9. Luke Fickell is then fired, the Badgers lose a bunch of the in-state and out-of-state recruits, and the program is starting over.
Best case scenario is 'take care of business' and pull off an upset: 9-3
Related: The Wisconsin defense is already gaining offseason media recognition
If the worst case is 3-9, then the best case is the reverse of it, with a couple of big upsets along the way. The Badgers have a much more manageable schedule this season, and while 9-3 is unlikely, find your most optimistic friend, and they will squint enough to see it.
The two wins against Western Illinois and Eastern Michigan, add in the bottom-tier teams in the Big Ten like Purdue, Maryland, Michigan State, UCLA, and Rutgers. That's already seven wins. Wisconsin, at this point, would probably be a favorite over Minnesota (if the above scenario is playing out), so give them that win. That's eight wins. Add in only one upset from Penn State, USC, Iowa, or Notre Dame, and it's nine wins.
A perfect world has Wisconsin even at 10 wins, but that felt too insane to even predict. However, if we are aiming for the absolute best-case scenario, why not?
Now, knowing the nature of the Big Ten, you'd love to expect those five wins against the bottom-tier teams (Wisconsin, probably even considered one of them right now), but it feels unlikely to get every single one of them. One of those teams will steal a game against the Badgers, especially when three of those listed games are on the road.
So, a realistic scenario is a seven-win season, and that alone will save Luke Fickell's job and keep things rolling.
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