The Wisconsin Badgers have officially locked up the double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament. There's no path for them to drop any lower than the 8th seed, but most likely they will be sitting at 6th. In fact, according to Matt Hackman, the Badgers have a 82% chance of being the 6th seed. However, Wisconsin still does have a path toward the coveted triple-bye with a top-4 finish in the Big Ten.
It's an absolute longshot but there's still a chance. There's a 6% chance that Wisconsin can be either the 3rd seed or the 4th seed. Partially because they hold the tie-breakers to everyone above them (except for Purdue, but even that is sort of).
Here's how Wisconsin can get the triple-bye in the Big Ten Tournament
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Let's break down the path to the triple-bye:
Wisconsin holds the tiebreakers over Michigan State and Illinois, as it has head-to-head victories over them. Michigan State is at 13-4 in the Big Ten, and Illinois is at 13-5. Wisconsin already has six losses. That means the Badgers would need Illinois to lose two games and Michigan to lose at least one to force the tie-breakers.
Let's start with that scenario. If Wisconsin wins its final two games against Maryland and Purdue that puts them at 14-6. The Badgers would need Michigan to lose twice in their final three games of Indiana, Rutgers, and Michigan. They would need Illinois to lose once in their final two games to Oregon or Maryland. Truly Wisconsin only needs one of those (while going undefeated) to happen to get the 4th seed. If both happens, that's the 1% chance of the 3rd seed.
Now, of course, Purdue is in the mix too, as they are currently at the 5th seed. Even with their loss to Ohio State today, they still hold the current tiebreaker over Wisconsin, thanks to a head-to-head victory. Yet, the two teams will face each other again in the last regular game of the season. If Wisconsin wins that, they will actually hold the tiebreaker. For the head-to-head will be 1-1, so the second tiebreaker goes to the record against the top seed. Wisconsin beating Michigan gives them the edge there.
These are all wild scenarios and yet realistic. Getting the 6th seed in the Big Ten Tournament is actually a good spot to be, and yet it's okay to root for 3rd, 4th, and/or 5th as the season finishes up.