Luke Fickell has never won the Heartland Trophy, and he's about to lead Wisconsin in another try for it on Saturday. The Wisconsin vs. Iowa game is one of the oldest rivalries, and yet, in the last three seasons, it's been all Iowa. The Badgers lead all-time, but it's been painful of late to be a Wisconsin fan. Vegas has predicted that this game will be close, with the Hawkeyes only being a 3.5 favorite. ESPN Analytics, on the other hand, is not so convinced.
For every game in all of sports, ESPN Analytics puts together a prediction model, and for the Wisconsin vs. Iowa game, the model declares that the Hawkeyes will win this game with a 62.6% probability, which is a much more lopsided thinking than Vegas.
ESPN has more confidence in Iowa than Vegas does and Luke Fickell needs to pull off an upset
Related: Where Wisconsin football ranks in points per game is depressing
Vegas is assuming that it will come down to a field goal. ESPN, on the other hand, with a probability percentage over 60% there is more confidence in a touchdown or better result for the Hawkeyes.
The model doesn't get into spreads or over/under; it lets Vegas do all that. This model is more of a confidence meter and should be approached as such. The Analytics are 62.6% confident that Iowa will pull it off. This is one of the best probabilities for Wisconsin for the rest of the season.
They only have one single game left that ESPN predicts them to win. Just one, the Minnesota game but right now that confidence meter is only at 54.6% in favor of Wisconsin. If ESPN gets all these predictions right, that means Wisconsin will go 3-9, but win the final game of the year and the only Big Ten game of the season.
That doesn't seem to be good enough to keep Luke Fickell, and his seat will be burning hot if he can even make it to that point. The buyout looms, but the frustration of fans and the loss of revenue will eventually outweigh the costs.