ESPN put out a win projection for all the teams in the Big Ten, and the Wisconsin Badgers are woefully disrespected again. The over-under for Wisconsin is set at 5.5 with 3.5 wins in the conference. If this happens, whether it's five or six, it's hard to see the Badgers keeping Luke Fickell around, especially with a new athletic director. That being said, the projection is blatantly wrong.
Let's start with the obvious: Wisconsin only won four games last season, and thus, the projection makes sense in that regard. ESPN is basically giving them two more wins over last season. That disrespect makes sense, and until Luke Fickell proves he isn't running the Badgers into the ground, he deserves all of this. However, the fact that Wisconsin won four games last season with the nation's hardest schedule, a rotating cast of quarterbacks, and a banged-up offensive line, is actually a reason to believe they can do more than two more wins.
The Badgers had wins over ranked teams, Washington and Illinois, last season, with true freshman Carter Smith as the starter for one game and Hunter Simmons the other. The win over the Huskies, the leading passer was the punter, Sean West. Consider for a second, that reality.
Wisconsin has a schedule that should put the Badgers in a bowl game, for sure
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Second, and maybe more importantly, Wisconsin has a much more manageable schedule. The Badgers take on three of the bottom-5 teams in this Big Ten projection by ESPN: Rutgers, Michigan State, and Purdue. The schedule also features a team that's tied with them in the projection (Minnesota). And two more teams just slightly above them: UCLA and Maryland.
Wisconsin may not win all of those games, but that is six games that Wisconsin could win in the Big Ten schedule and maybe even "should" win. That's four more than they had last year. In a realistic world where injuries are normal and not crazy, and with a schedule that's normal, not crazy. Does Wisconsin pull off 4 or 5 of these games?
If so, that puts Wisconsin at six wins right away as the Badgers have Eastern Michigan and Western Illinois in the non-conference. If they win five of those games, it's seven wins, all six, and it's eight wins. This isn't to include any of the programs that Wisconsin could theoretically knock off, like a rebuilding Penn State, Iowa, or even USC (which is also in a make-or-break year for Lincoln Riley).
One thing is for sure: Fickell has a tendency to lose at least one or two games that he should win (think Maryland last season), but also win one or two games that he shouldn't (think Washington and Illinois). So this all may be a wash. The moral of the story is that the schedule is set up for Wisconsin to blast this 5.5-win projection by ESPN.
Now take in the fact that Bill Connelly also says clearly in this article that Wisconsin's roster is much better than last year's roster and that Colton Joseph is one of his top-10 transfers. There's some energy being tossed at the Badgers, it's just guarded and ultimately a tad disrespectful.
The Badgers will win at least six games, but don't be surprised if it's eight. If not, then put me first in line for firing Luke Fickell. This is the year he has to at least get back to a bowl if not higher.
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