The Wisconsin Badgers did what very few teams can achieve in a season, knocking off the NET No. 1 and the NET No. 4 teams. To make the feat even rarer, Wisconsin won both of those games as an unranked team. Both games were considered incredible long-shot odds, improbable, and very unlikely. Against Illinois, they were nearly 11-point underdogs, and ESPN Analytics before the game had the win probability at 15.1%.
Throughout the game, ESPN adjusts that up and down depending on how the game is going. At one point, when the Badgers were down 12 in the second half, Wisconsin had a 1.6% chance of winning. And then, you see the graph change and spike in overtime to exactly the moment Wisconsin broke Illinois fans' hearts.
1.6% chance of winning mid 2nd half. Incredible. pic.twitter.com/flclizAWev
— Schmo (@BlackCoffeeSobr) February 11, 2026
The win probability chart for Wisconsin vs. Illinois is a thing of beauty
Related: Greg Gard trolls Illinois with wig celebration after Badgers’ massive upset
Hang it in a museum because that chart is a thing of beauty. It's the underdog story, and it's now happened twice this season. John Blackwell even named this team the "villains" because they come into other people's homes and steal the victory. They did it in Ann Arbor and now in Champaign against top-5 teams in the NET and top-10 teams in the AP Poll.
Illinois was actually the No. 1 offense on KenPom before the game. The Badgers haven't exactly been the best defensive team, and they weren't perfect last night. Yet, they did just enough to keep the Illinois within striking distance, and when the opportunity presented itself, they struck, tied it, sent it to overtime, and then stole the victory.
The odds were against them, the probability charts were weighted so heavily toward Illinois, it makes it that much sweeter that Wisconsin pulled it off. Now, the goal will be to keep the momentum going into a home game against another ranked opponent, Michigan State.